The August 11 primaries across Minnesota, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Vermont, South Carolina, Alabama, and other states offered a vivid look at the forces shaping the 2026 election. Progressive insurgents continued to challenge the Democratic establishment, while Republican voters once again weighed loyalty to President Trump against concerns about general-election viability.
The night’s biggest stories included Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan’s progressive victory over centrist Rep. Angie Craig in Minnesota’s open Senate race, state House Speaker Lisa Demuth’s defeat of Trump-endorsed Mike Lindell in Minnesota’s Republican gubernatorial primary, and David Crowley’s razor-thin victory over democratic socialist Francesca Hong in Wisconsin’s Democratic gubernatorial contest. Minnesota also recorded historic participation, with more than 1.1 million primary ballots cast for the first time.
Primary Election Results and Voter Turnout
Minnesota provided the clearest evidence of an energized electorate. More than 1,103,000 ballots were cast, representing roughly 25% of eligible voters and surpassing the previous primary record of 925,554 set in 2018. Secretary of State Steve Simon attributed the surge to heightened civic engagement (Minnesota Secretary of State; FOX 9).
Connecticut’s turnout was more subdued. Approximately 23% of registered Democrats participated, down from 29% in the comparable 2018 gubernatorial primary, although towns with competitive congressional or legislative races experienced increases. Republican participation was lower, reaching roughly 10% of registered Republicans in towns that held primaries (CT Mirror). Taken together, the results suggest that voter enthusiasm was strongest where high-profile, competitive contests gave people a compelling reason to participate.
Peggy Flanagan Defeats Angie Craig in Minnesota Senate Primary
The most consequential Democratic result came in Minnesota, where Peggy Flanagan defeated Angie Craig by 59% to 40% in the DFL Senate primary (NBC News; Inside Elections). Flanagan framed the campaign as a fight between grassroots voters and powerful financial interests, declaring that “this campaign was about the many versus the money.” Her supporters included Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, as well as retiring incumbent Tina Smith (PBS NewsHour).
Immigration policy and the backlash against the Trump administration played a major role. The killings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti by federal immigration officers in Minneapolis became central to the campaign. Flanagan criticized Craig for voting for the Trump-backed Laken Riley Act, which Craig later repudiated. Flanagan also emphasized her refusal to accept corporate and AIPAC contributions, turning outside money into a defining contrast between the candidates.
The race exposed a clear split within the Democratic establishment. Craig received endorsements from House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Gov. Tim Walz declined to endorse either candidate, while his wife, Gwen Walz, backed Craig (PBS NewsHour).
Flanagan’s victory came one week after progressive Abdul El-Sayed won Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary. AIPAC’s affiliated super PAC spent more than $30 million opposing El-Sayed, exceeding its previous spending records, but failed to stop him (PBS NewsHour; Federal News Network). Together, the Michigan and Minnesota results energized the Democratic left while increasing concerns among party leaders about whether progressive nominees might struggle with moderate swing voters.
Wisconsin Democratic Primary: David Crowley Narrowly Defeats Francesca Hong
Wisconsin complicated the idea of an unchecked progressive wave. Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley defeated democratic socialist Francesca Hong by only half a percentage point, 39.8% to 39.3%, in the Democratic gubernatorial primary (Inside Elections). Hong had previously polled far ahead, making Crowley’s comeback especially significant.
The race took several unusual turns. Crowley initially left the contest to consolidate support behind Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez. Rodriguez then withdrew, Crowley reentered, and former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes also departed the field. Retiring Gov. Tony Evers endorsed Crowley and campaigned aggressively for him, warning that Hong was “too far to the left to win a general election” (Inside Elections).
Crowley’s narrow victory showed that establishment intervention could still succeed, but the closeness of the result also demonstrated the strength of Wisconsin’s progressive movement. Rather than rejecting the left, Democratic voters split nearly evenly between the moderate and democratic socialist choices.
Connecticut Voters Embrace Generational Change
Connecticut’s primaries revealed a strong appetite for generational turnover in several down-ballot races. Former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin defeated 28-year incumbent Rep. John Larson in the 1st Congressional District, winning 54% to Larson’s 33% on a message of “generational change” (CBIA; CT Mirror).
Other longtime incumbents also lost. State Rep. Patricia Dillon, who had represented New Haven’s 92nd District since 1985, was defeated by alder Eli Sabin. Larson’s loss prompted questions about whether Sen. Richard Blumenthal could face a similar generational challenge in the future (CT Mirror).
At the top of the ticket, however, Gov. Ned Lamont easily defeated progressive challenger Josh Elliott, 68% to 32%, carrying all but three towns (Inside Elections; CBIA). Lamont’s performance showed that established moderates can still win decisively when they have the advantages of incumbency and a strong governing record.
Lisa Demuth Defeats Trump-Backed Mike Lindell
Minnesota’s Republican gubernatorial primary produced one of the night’s most notable GOP results. State House Speaker Lisa Demuth defeated MyPillow founder Mike Lindell, despite Trump publicly declaring that Lindell “deserves a BIG WIN” on the morning of the primary. Demuth received 43.4% of the vote, compared with Lindell’s 33% and Kendall Qualls’ 21% (NBC News; Inside Elections).
Prediction markets had placed Demuth’s likelihood of victory above 70%, even though some polls showed Lindell leading by as much as six points. Republican voters appeared to place substantial weight on electability. Retired voter Jim Busche said he supported Demuth because he “wanted to vote for somebody that at least has a chance,” while state GOP Chairman Alex Plechash had also raised questions about Lindell’s ability to win in November (PBS NewsHour).
The result suggests that Trump’s endorsement may carry less weight when Republican primary voters believe it could leave them with a weak nominee in a blue-leaning state. His backing remains powerful in many Republican contests, but Minnesota showed that it is not absolute.
South Carolina Senate Primary Heads to Graham-Norman Runoff
The death of Sen. Lindsey Graham on July 11, 2026, triggered a special Republican primary in South Carolina. Darline Graham finished first with 33%, followed by Rep. Ralph Norman at 25%. Both advanced to an August 25 runoff. Rep. Russell Fry received 20%, former Gov. Mark Sanford took 15%, and Mark Lynch finished with 6% (Inside Elections; Ballotpedia).
Darline Graham, the late senator’s sister, entered the race with Trump’s backing. Some voters nevertheless expressed unease about the speed with which the party embraced a candidate without political experience. The runoff against Norman will provide another test of the president’s influence, this time in a deep-red state.
Implications for the General Election
In Minnesota’s Senate race, Flanagan will face Republican Michele Tafoya, who won her primary with 52.1%. Flanagan begins the general election as the front-runner in a state that has not elected a Republican statewide since 2006 (PBS NewsHour).
Minnesota’s gubernatorial contest will feature Democrat Amy Klobuchar, who won 89.7% of her primary vote, against Demuth, who received 43.4% in a divided Republican field. Klobuchar enters the race strongly favored (NBC News).
Wisconsin’s open gubernatorial race is expected to be more competitive. Crowley will face Republican Tom Tiffany in a closely divided state following Evers’ retirement. In Connecticut, Lamont will run against Republican Ryan Fazio and enters the general election favored. Vermont Democrat Amanda Janoo, who won her primary with 49.1%, will face incumbent Republican Gov. Phil Scott, who is heavily favored (Inside Elections; CBIA).
Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District will also attract national attention. DFL-endorsed progressive Matt Little won the Democratic primary with 47%, defeating Matt Klein at 30% and Kaela Berg at 17%. Little will face Republican state Sen. Eric Pratt in a district that supported Kamala Harris by two points and is rated “Likely DFL” (Inside Elections).
The Fight for the House
Democrats need a net gain of only three seats to reclaim the House from the Republicans’ narrow majority, giving every competitive district national significance (NBC News). Minnesota’s 2nd District is one of those closely watched seats, but Alabama’s 2nd District could be equally consequential.
The Alabama district is Trump +7 territory currently represented by Democrat Shomari Figures, who will face Republican Rhett Marques. The district has a 40% Black electorate and no longer includes Figures’ hometown of Mobile. Inside Elections rates the seat “Likely Republican,” placing it among the districts that could help determine chamber control (Inside Elections).
Minnesota’s Fraud Scandal Looms Over November
Minnesota’s food-fraud scandal remains an important political issue heading into the general election. The scandal has produced at least 65 convictions, including a 42-year sentence in a $250 million fraud case. It reportedly contributed to Walz’s decision not to seek a third term and has become the foundation of the Republican argument that the state faces a leadership crisis (PBS NewsHour).
Tafoya captured that argument when she said, “They’ve brought us to a place of national embarrassment, and this state is ready for change.” Trump cited the scandal when justifying an immigration crackdown initially focused on Minnesota’s Somali community. That crackdown, in turn, produced the Good and Pretti killings that helped energize Flanagan’s coalition. Minnesota’s general election will therefore be shaped by two opposing forces: a corruption backlash that could benefit Republicans and an immigration-enforcement backlash that could help Democrats.
Election Fundraising and Outside Spending
Party fundraising figures point to a structural Democratic advantage in several states. The Democratic Party of Wisconsin reported $19.1 million in total receipts, compared with $4.1 million for the Republican Party of Wisconsin. Minnesota’s DFL raised $12.1 million, while the state Republican Party raised $3.2 million. Connecticut Democrats reported $1.4 million, nearly twice the $818,000 raised by Connecticut Republicans. Klobuchar had $1.2 million in cash on hand, consistent with the commanding position reflected in her primary victory.
Outside spending has also become part of the political message. AIPAC’s affiliated super PAC spent more than $30 million in an unsuccessful attempt to stop El-Sayed in Michigan. Flanagan then used opposition to corporate and AIPAC money as a positive argument for her own candidacy. These results suggest that enormous outside expenditures can become a liability when progressive candidates successfully portray them as evidence of establishment or corporate interference.
What the Results Mean for Democrats and Republicans
For Democrats, the progressive wave is real but varies considerably by state and race. Flanagan and El-Sayed demonstrated the power of populist, anti-corporate campaigns, while Bronin’s victory showed that generational change can topple even deeply entrenched incumbents. At the same time, Crowley’s narrow Wisconsin victory and Lamont’s landslide in Connecticut showed that moderates still have viable paths when they can make a compelling case based on experience, electability, or governing performance.
The results favor an approach tailored to the political character of each state and district. Progressive messaging may mobilize voters in some Democratic primaries, but candidates in closely divided general-election constituencies will still need to reach moderates and independents.
Republicans face a similar need for state-specific judgment. Lindell’s loss demonstrated that Trump’s endorsement can be overcome when primary voters see the endorsed candidate as unlikely to win a statewide general election. Demuth’s campaign offered a model based on conservative credibility combined with a stronger electability argument. The South Carolina runoff will show whether that calculation changes in a much more Republican state.
Immigration enforcement will remain one of the campaign’s most volatile issues. The Good and Pretti killings helped reshape Minnesota’s Senate primary, illustrating how rapidly a major enforcement incident can change the direction of a race. Campaigns in both parties will need to recognize the potential for such events to mobilize voters and reorder established political coalitions.
What Comes Next
The most immediate contest is South Carolina’s August 25 Senate runoff between Darline Graham and Ralph Norman. It will be followed by Connecticut’s postponed 58th District primary on September 1, which was delayed by a court ruling concerning candidate Thomas Tyler’s eligibility (CBIA).
Wisconsin’s gubernatorial contest between Crowley and Tiffany will become one of the most closely watched open-seat races in the country. Connecticut Democrats will be watching for signs that Larson’s defeat could inspire a future generational challenge to Blumenthal. Nationally, attention will remain fixed on the three-seat House margin and districts such as Minnesota’s 2nd and Alabama’s 2nd.
The August 11 primaries ultimately revealed a Democratic electorate energized by populist, anti-corporate, and anti-Trump themes without being uniformly controlled by the party’s left. Republicans showed that some voters are willing to resist Trump’s endorsement when they believe electability is at stake, even though his influence remains powerful in redder states.
With control of the House resting on a net change of only three seats and historic Minnesota turnout pointing to an activated electorate, the general-election environment is both volatile and highly competitive. The strongest lesson from primary night is that national trends matter, but individual candidates, local controversies, state political cultures, and district-level coalitions will decide who wins in November.
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