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The 2026 Statt Midterm Playbook
The mid-decade redistricting cycle has closed the net Republican advantage by 9 to 10 House seats. In NRSC v. FEC on June 30, the Supreme Court struck down limits on coordinated party-candidate spending. The Iran ceasefire collapsed in the second week of July. And Graham Platner suspended his Maine Senate campaign four weeks after winning a record-turnout primary. Our latest edition tracks each of these shifts and what they mean for control of the House and Senate.
What's Inside Each Edition
Every edition tracks polling, redistricting, campaign finance, candidate developments, and policy events that are reshaping the cycle.
The races that decide control
Which House and Senate seats are most likely to flip, and the redistricting, court rulings, and map changes reshaping the 2026 battlefield.
Legislative positioning
How vulnerable incumbents and party leadership are using legislation, appropriations, and oversight to define the cycle.
The issue narratives that move voters
Foreign policy, cost of living, appropriations, oversight, and election law, and how each is reshaping the campaign environment.
Post-election scenarios
What a Democratic House, a Republican Senate, or a flipped chamber would mean for the policy agenda in 2027.
Past editions
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Explore Statt's Other Policy Intelligence
Whichever way November breaks, the next Congress will reshape oversight, regulation, and policy across every major sector. Statt’s oversight reports map the investigative landscape ahead for highly regulated industries.
Oversight Map: Energy Sector
Oversight Map: Financial Sector
Oversight Map: Technology Sector
Get the next edition when it drops
We publish a new edition of the Playbook every month between now and November. Subscribe to our newsletter to stay up to date on all Statt insights.